tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post5252792126540512351..comments2024-03-18T06:16:18.802-05:00Comments on A Newbie's Guide to Publishing: The Race to the BottomJA Konrathhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08778324558755151986noreply@blogger.comBlogger147125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-56782514876851525872011-11-18T15:52:29.585-06:002011-11-18T15:52:29.585-06:00Talent and hard work does not mean the world owes ...<i>Talent and hard work does not mean the world owes you. You have to keep at it until you get lucky.</i><br /><br />My new mantra, thank you!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-12227710976608562112011-09-19T12:11:04.012-05:002011-09-19T12:11:04.012-05:00Joe, you featured Kiana Davenport on your blog and...Joe, you featured Kiana Davenport on your blog and I'm certain you know about the current madness from her Big 6 publisher having fired her and demanded return of her big advance ($20,000). She's suing, as would any author worth her salt, and her agent is siding with the publisher. Is this what you foresaw? <br /><br />Now there's a UK bookseller suggesting that print and ebook be bundled, which isn't a bad idea, except the ebook would be free. Ebooks are not a frill or a gift with purchase, but a viable and lucrative product in their own right, not a makeup bag filled with makeup no one ever uses. <br /><br />What's your take? Or do I need to ask?Jacklyn Cornwellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07703031152094274587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-78875912966600460112011-09-07T11:52:17.472-05:002011-09-07T11:52:17.472-05:00I wonder if the declining income in the pornograph...I wonder if the declining income in the pornography industry is because, unlike with books, consumers don't make much distinction between one provider and another.<br /><br />There's lots of free Harry Potter fan-fiction out there, but that doesn't make anyone not buy JK Rowling's books.<br /><br />Whereas maybe no one wants to pay to see boobs when they can see other boobs for free, even when those boobs maybe aren't as good.anarchisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05546197561922726279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-21238223411708667782011-09-06T12:33:30.351-05:002011-09-06T12:33:30.351-05:00Guess what? All my life there's been this thin...Guess what? All my life there's been this thing called the "Public Library", that let me borrow books, read them FOR FREE, then return them, so SOMEONE ELSE could borrow them and read them FOR FREE. A single copy of a book might be read by hundreds of people. FOR FREE.<br /><br />Don't let the publishing industry know about this. Their lawyers would go batshit.<br /><br />These "Public Libraries" exist in almost every single town in the US, even rual towns I've lived in with a population of a few thousand.<br /><br />Even better, there's this thing called "inter-library loan" that allows the "library" to borrow a book from another "library" to lend to me, to read for free. (shhh! Don't tell the New York publisher's lawyers!)<br /><br />And a wide variety of stuff, to. Classics, popular fiction, genre fiction, literary fiction, non-fiction. Anything you can think of.<br /><br />The publishing industry hit bottom in the "race to the bottom" a very, very long time ago, when public libraries reached a saturation point such that anyone who could have purchased books (and quite a few others as well) could obtain more reading material than they could read in a lifetime. For free. <br /><br />The "race to the bottom" hit bottom before any of us were born. <br /><br />Yet, somehow, I've managed to spend a lot of money on books...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-20035791926578628182011-09-05T03:56:10.520-05:002011-09-05T03:56:10.520-05:00Well done, Joe! And like you, I am getting tired o...Well done, Joe! And like you, I am getting tired of the doomsday sayers! <br /><br />Bottom line, GOOD content will always be paid for, one way or another. It's just that the ways are changing with the digital revolution. <br /><br />The example of Spotify, something of a scarecrow that always comes up in this kind of discussion, is just one among many ways and certainly not the main road to the future! If nothing else, precisely because it pays a pittance to artists!<br /><br />Artists will find other ways to make money - musicians will turn back to concerts: for them, a live performance is the royal road to success!<br /><br />For writers? At this point, ebooks are!Claude Forthommehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03871790739257823515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-28720277355516901372011-09-04T11:44:35.448-05:002011-09-04T11:44:35.448-05:00we may want to consider an option which exists in ...<em>we may want to consider an option which exists in many non-digital industries: quite simply, demanding that writers get paid a living wage for their work.</em><br /><br />When I read that, it almost sounded like he expected some sort of government mandate on wages for writer's? I know Ewan is from a socialist run country, but the mere concept just gave me the heebie-jeebiesWernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13177999875649895318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-29852640434902961732011-09-02T05:17:08.933-05:002011-09-02T05:17:08.933-05:00Erm, did I just get censored, or did my post just ...Erm, did I just get censored, or did my post just disappear to interspace?<br /><br />Took a while to write that one!<br /><br />Joe, if there was a problem, please elaborate. First dot last, at that mail provider that just bought the mobile phones.Jussi Keinonennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-19620903595080670432011-09-02T02:28:21.783-05:002011-09-02T02:28:21.783-05:00Thanks Neil & others,
But how long has Kindl...Thanks Neil & others, <br /><br />But how long has Kindle dominated the market for? It's only a feeble beginning. Looking 25 years ahead things will be unpredictable. But for only 3 years ahead, I'll guess:<br /><br />1) Amazon has lost the azw/ePub format war.<br /><br />2) azw/mobi/ePub DRM's have lost the game, people will be exchanging "their" libraries freely.<br /><br />3) Likewise, as Joe wrote a few days ago with Blake Crouch, authors will increasingly surpass the last middlemen, the amazonkobos, with their own sites and other webcostcos. The best sales pitch as it always is? "The lowest price near you!"<br /><br />4) The supply has exceeded the demand, even Joe makes less money than today and drives the same car he just bought.<br /><br />5) iTunes will have lost the game because of the same kind of new monopoly breakers (they're already losing it here in Europe). Why would I pay 99 cents a song in a propriety format when I can listen to all I need legally for FREE (with ads) or $4.99 a month. That's Spotify's streaming model TODAY, and they'll lose out too, one day.<br /><br />6) TODAY, NOT three years from now, Spotify pays less than 0.02 CENTS for each time a song is played. Yes, after 100 plays, you have earned TWO CENTS and with 10,000 plays you will have earned two dollars.<br /><br />(In my post above I guesstimated the compensation for a book to be about 30 cents on TODAY's Spotify model. Of course I have no idea.)<br /><br />- - - - -<br /><br />Now, I actually DON'T want to instill fear or pessimism. I myself work to try to help Finnish authors make a living. I believe that writers should be able to make a living with their work. But I think there will be huge challenges ahead.<br /><br />OK, how about a little guessing game: how much do <i>you</i> guys think a novel-length book will cost 25 years from now?<br /><br />Will it be 9.99, 2.99, 0.99, 0.09, FREE, or "you get something if you actually read it"?<br /><br />I've thought of this a lot, and will offer a guess if some of you do it first.Jussi Keinonennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-25408593000015356172011-09-01T22:44:54.449-05:002011-09-01T22:44:54.449-05:00Your post had me laughing a ton, great job calling...Your post had me laughing a ton, great job calling him out on each individual point.<br /><br />I agree 100%, music is out there all over the place for free and itunes is still making a ton of money by selling songs for cheap.<br /><br />Books have found a similar route into the digital world and are adapting a lot like the music world did... but they're still around and will be forever.<br /><br />I read a lot of your other posts and wanted to also say thanks for telling everyone to keep working at writing if they are serious about it. I'm sure some of us will get lucky with a book someday.Randy Morrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16804192064478714411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-5408054313964690412011-09-01T21:48:21.387-05:002011-09-01T21:48:21.387-05:00John Brown,
I wanted to thank you for your reply....John Brown,<br /><br />I wanted to thank you for your reply. I apologize as we seemed to be discussing a bit off. Perhaps one day we could have a drink and catch the nuances that are tough on the net discussions.<br /><br />But I do agree (with others) that it is a long way out until the market is saturated. Right now ebook sales (in dollars) is outgrowing ebook availability.<br /><br />That won't occur for long. At most 2 years. But only good authors will count.<br /><br />I'm now with everyone else on the 'luck' thread.<br /><br />Neil<br /><br />ps Jussi, you claim that $0.99 won't hold when $2.99 actually seems to be holding. What other major ebook seller is trying to undercut Amazon? By major we must talk about market share above 2% (at a minimum). That only leaves: Amazon, B&N, Apple, Sony, Kobo, and possibly Google. <br /><br />Since all of the above make money off of a cut of the sales, none have an incentive to let the bar slide any lower. <br /><br />I do see smashwords breaking down the $2.99 price point (eventually). I'm just not seeing the disruptive technology. For selling digital content, it is tough to do without significant market share and that takes cash for advertising. (That is the biggest expense I can think of getting someone to an ebook store.)<br /><br />Neilwannabuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-58441765073685077702011-09-01T18:09:31.889-05:002011-09-01T18:09:31.889-05:00I really like the way you took apart what Morrison...I really like the way you took apart what Morrison said. I'm convinced that you are the man to listen to!Patricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09073900183291544491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-51120345341626593462011-09-01T15:40:22.233-05:002011-09-01T15:40:22.233-05:00@Wannabuy,
I'm not engaging in any type of &q...@Wannabuy,<br /><br />I'm not engaging in any type of "protect me from the slush" argument. Truly. <br /><br />In fact, I blogged about why readers will NEVER face any sort of crappy book tsunami, adding points I think Joe missed: http://johndbrown.com/2011/07/the-ebook-tsunami-of-crap-is-crap/ <br /><br />I think you're reading something into my comments that isn't meant to be there. <br /><br />I do NOT buy into Morrison's predictions. I think ebooks are fabulous. And I think the ebook revolution promises nothing but GOOD for the hordes of us authors trying to build an audience.<br /><br />I'm just taking issue with Joe's one point of wishful thinking where he suggests that ebooks usher in a world of no constraints. <br /><br />It just ain't so. <br /><br />It changes the dynamics, but we still live in a world of scarce resources with alternative uses. <br /><br />Yes, Dean W, even in all the examples you pose. Especially the one with ice cream refridgeration.John Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16644593323523613105noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-16507766876753427662011-09-01T15:15:30.731-05:002011-09-01T15:15:30.731-05:00Renee, I didn't say that "no one likes a ...Renee, I didn't say that "no one likes a clean looking home", I said that Jack can't legitimatately say that EVERONE likes a clean-looking (ie, minimalist) home unless he's asked everyone. Certainly many people like minimalist -- while many don't.Mary Knoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-73495501375221024372011-09-01T15:15:06.073-05:002011-09-01T15:15:06.073-05:00Renee, I didn't say that "no one likes a ...Renee, I didn't say that "no one likes a clean looking home", I said that Jack can't legitimatately say that EVERONE likes a clean-looking (ie, minimalist) home unless he's asked everyone. Certainly many people like minimalist -- while many don't.Mary Knoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-6341852449221462922011-09-01T15:04:22.642-05:002011-09-01T15:04:22.642-05:00Thanks Ed,
I appreciate your comment.
However, ...Thanks Ed, <br /><br />I appreciate your comment.<br /><br />However, what I tried to say, is that 25 years ahead you don't <i>have</i> to make a choice of paying 2.99 or 0.00, because you'll get it either way; and that is a challenge for future authors and the e-legacy authors of today.Jussi Keinonennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-75877461782766203902011-09-01T13:36:07.772-05:002011-09-01T13:36:07.772-05:00"There will be SO MANY adequate books to read..."There will be SO MANY adequate books to read digitally 25 years from here"<br /><br />There are already SO MANY classics of literature available to read digitally for free that I probably couldn't find the time to read them all. There are already SO MANY used books available for a few cents each that I could definitely never find the time to read them all.<br /><br />Guess what? I still read new books, because tastes have changed and many of those old classics that were wonderful in their day are painful to read today.<br /><br />The library has thousands of books available to me for free.<br /><br />Guess what? I still buy books myself, either because it's more convenient at that time or because the library doesn't have them yet.<br /><br />I have around 700 free ebooks that I've downloaded from Smashwords and Amazon over the last few months.<br /><br />Guess what? I still buy new ebooks, because I've rarely managed to work through more than a few pages of the free ebooks before I gave up. In fact, most of them are so bad that I've pretty much stopped downloading anything that isn't good enough to pay for.<br /><br />You seem to be arguing that people won't pay $2.99 for a book while there are free books available, when we live in a world where people happily pay more than $2.99 for a cup of coffee when they could make their own for next to nothing.Edward M. Granthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08149744619931445003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-82039955963942909452011-09-01T13:21:13.023-05:002011-09-01T13:21:13.023-05:00I was happy to see a little quality discussion sta...I was happy to see a little quality discussion started here by John Brown, after the typical one hundred Cult Of Joe Sez commentators saying "Yeah, Joe, you kick 'em!" :)<br /><br />And, like John Brown, although I normally agree with a lot that Konrath writes about the business, this post <i>does</i> have myopia. It hops from a point to another (actually much like Joe's prose!) is exciting to read, and occasional parts of the beef are a bit chewy. And sometimes it misses out on core themes.<br /><br />I think commentators in their New Frontier excitement have made a big mistake in not understanding that Ewan not-lighting-their-fires Morrison was having a peek at what could happen 25 years <i>from here</i>.<br /><br />And that's something I think only John Brown here picked upon.<br /><br />So my short me-Tarzan take on Finite Demand and Pricing:<br /><br />Joe has surpassed many famous authors with (his blog fame and good writing and) $2.99 pricing during the last couple of years. Amanda Hocking and John Locke kicked Joe's ass chartwise during the <i>last year</i> with $0.99.<br /><br />Can't you see where this is going to, and what that Morrison guy was saying as his number one point? <br /><br />Although, as long as Amazon is almost monopolizing the US market with it's great Kindle, there may be a year or two of $0.99 <br />holding on as the "price frontline" from the author's point of view. <br /><br />But it can't last.<br /><br />We'll see 0.29, then 0.09 and then offers where the <i>reader</i> is paid by the author/publisher/15% to get visibility or "sales" just to have his/her shot at breaking it.<br /><br />As you have only had Spotify available in America for a couple of months, you don't necessarily know what that model is up to, but prepare for whopping 30 cent book compensations at the <i>first stage</i> before competition wipes the first-level spotifys out.<br /><br />Like someone said above, there are already more books available than a person can read in a lifetime. Now multiply "more" by "morillion".<br /><br />There will be SO MANY adequate books to read digitally 25 years from here, that there <i>really will</i> be a chance that FREE with add-ons is the BEST income opportunity for most written things.<br /><br />Really, think about it!<br /><br />We, in 2011, may think it's worth the money to pay $2.99 or even $19.99 for a book.<br /><br />But only because we don't have the massive oversupply of free choices yet. <br /><br />This time is a wonderful window of opportunities for Konrath, Locke and the next 0.29 NYT #1 Bestseller [are there sarcasm smileys?] and the 0.09 one after that.<br /><br />So in that way, Morrison was definitely not 'old skool' in the essential part of his article. On most of his things, like people here and Joe, I do disagree, TODAY. But he did <i>try</i> to look 25 years further, and my guess is that FREE was the best guess in his Guardian piece.<br /><br />(A quick sidestep: in the article, Morrison also pointed out that the p*rn industry wasn't prepared for people video recording themselves doing "it" and sharing for FREE. But it IS true, my Mom told me!)<br /><br />So, prepare for the future, all I know it's not in anyone of our hands.<br /><br />To finish off, I'm genuinely all for e-volution and author publishing. I just am interested in looking beyond the obvious next steps.Jussi Keinonennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-77691041145767826332011-09-01T08:34:18.826-05:002011-09-01T08:34:18.826-05:00Perhaps in the past self-pubbing was a money pit, ...Perhaps in the past self-pubbing was a money pit, where said author would pay a vanity press big bucks and have to order 1000 copies of their book, only to have 950 of those books live in their garage forever. I went with publishing to Kindle first because I thought I would have to pay to go through CreateSpace. What a pleasant surprise! I published First Wish in both Kindle format and paperback for less than $300.<br /><br />Nearly all of those start-up costs were software purchases or website related, but I was more than pleased with the final product on both ends of the deal. <br /><br />Meanwhile, I'm working hard to get lucky. Thanks, Joe!<br /><br />Julie Wolf ScottJ. Wolf Scotthttp://jwolfscott.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-67230592032783890902011-09-01T07:52:18.776-05:002011-09-01T07:52:18.776-05:00Fuck yeah.Fuck yeah.Matthew MacNishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03264738483763244969noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-15385833678915309572011-09-01T07:38:20.271-05:002011-09-01T07:38:20.271-05:00John Brown,
“This is theoretical flim flam.”
...John Brown,<br /><br /><br /><i> “This is theoretical flim flam.” </i><br /><br />It’s economic fact. In case you missed it, the same phenomena happened with every other commodity and luxury good over the last century. People were lucky to have a car at one time, now most families have two; the lucky few had one TV, if any, now they have four; the same goes for all electronics. How many people really need four phones in their houses and four PCs? <br /><br />You’re static view shows through in your analogy, not to mention lack of imagination. You think the only thing people can do with ice cream is eat it. But if ice cream was free, people would melt it to substitute for milk, they’d feed it to their pets, use it to keep their freezers cold and to air condition their houses, fill holes in their backyards, lubricate their wheels with it, and God knows what else.<br /><br />The same thing goes for books. You think everyone buys books for the same reason and does the same thing with them: buy, read through to end, buy another. But as books become cheaper people will be able to indulge in other reading habits: buying to read only the chapters and scenes they like, other more artsy connoisseurs may buy just for the covers. It’s not inconceivable that it’s already happening.<br /><br />So, you’re “meaningful practical limits to the demand for books” is actually meaningless, because demand for books is an amorphous abstraction containing practices you’ve never even thought of. Also, i would have thought that the debt crisis in your country would have taught you that there’s no such thing as “finite dollars.”W. Deanhttp://platoshead.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-41976720164185382472011-09-01T07:14:36.377-05:002011-09-01T07:14:36.377-05:00Apple has proven with their apps that people do li...Apple has proven with their apps that people do like to pay for content if it's worthwhile. The free internet is probably past its prime. He does have a point about music but this is not really the same as books. Music really went down with mtv and cable in general. People leave their tv on with music in the background all the time. So they don't need to buy music. Then the music industry focused around making advertising jingles. Bands like the Who and the Beatles gave in to this. Writers do get used by Hollywood, but it's not getting worse. They can't take your book and stick it in there over the credits. If anything Hollywood is going to be hit harder by digital and this means fewer new movies. The movies that get made now have to sell worldwide, which makes them even more generic than ever. I have a theory that this could lead to more heat around books. In other parts of the world that don't have a big movie business they seem to give writers more attention. We'll see.frank palardyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09899686689884850209noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-62155791738950594552011-09-01T06:16:44.790-05:002011-09-01T06:16:44.790-05:00Ok, screw this writing crap. I'm going into po...Ok, screw this writing crap. I'm going into porn!<br /><br />Rob Cornell<br />Author of <a href="http://bit.ly/jxOSOL" rel="nofollow">Darker Things</a>Rob Cornellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04388119793952454397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-43297813724270299262011-09-01T06:00:44.292-05:002011-09-01T06:00:44.292-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.frank palardyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09899686689884850209noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-31540756937889346212011-09-01T00:43:14.606-05:002011-09-01T00:43:14.606-05:00WAIT WAIT WAIT. Did he say PORN is going out of bu...WAIT WAIT WAIT. Did he say PORN is going out of business??? That's all I needed to read to know how idiotic his predictions are. Porn is something like a $5 Billion per year Industry right now!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11291165.post-16333593573663588452011-08-31T23:24:59.693-05:002011-08-31T23:24:59.693-05:00@John BrownIn the end, for any given period you wa...@John Brown<i>In the end, for any given period you want to look at, there is only so much demand that suppliers compete to fill. </i><br />Ok, demand isn't infinite. So? Supply above 'quality X' isn't infinite either. <br /><br />We've heard every version of 'protect us from the slush pile' in these comments. I'm trying to figure out what new point you're making. <a href="http://jakonrath.blogspot.com/2011/07/tsunami-of-crap.html" rel="nofollow">Joe already debunked the Tsunami of crap argument.</a><br /><br />Adam Smith noted a disproportionate share of the population will become lawyers due to the perceived ease of wealth. Most will fail, but the best will make a fortune. The same is true of authors. Note: Adam Smith wrote that in 1775! (Perhaps earlier.) <br /><br />@John D:<i>"Under the new system, most of yesterday's winners can make more money than ever. Many of yesterdays losers can make decent money on their work."</i><br /><br />Please read John D's post. We've had numerous discussions here how the cream will rise to the top and we won't even notice the crap. Seriously, what is the difference in finding a good book among 100,000 (Borders books) and 10 million (future ebook inventory)? At least with ebooks you have reviews.<br /><br />Neilwannabuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com